Countries should make the relevant as soon as possible "solar pv industry" support policies. In solar power field, China has power tariff, every year hundreds of megawatts of solar power construction and a few ji watts solar photovoltaic battery production capacity, far disproportionate dwarfs. Therefore, the solar power tariff on Chinese solar power as soon as possible is the top priority. Industrial
Japan, earthquake that triggered the tsunami, nuclear leakage and so on a series of secondary disasters, predictable is, the Japanese government could thus be rethinking of nuclear energy in its energy supplies, the proportion of the extremely likely to solar, wind and other new energy tilt. Thus the view, the future of China and even the world, and photovoltaic industry photovoltaic road as a light, but the author thinks in this prosperity could not hide behind the existence of the risk.
Traditional silicon companies and emerging silicon enterprise competition. Before the 2008 financial crisis formed as suntech, LDK, yingli, jing Olympic, rafa, CLP, o in the traditional silicon for echelon enterprise, at present has made a great progress, each enterprise productivity has more than auspicious watts after 2008, and is forming emerging silicon enterprises such as guodian photovoltaic, CLP energy, in cast, in building materials, sinochem corp and a number of countries with the enterprise, the injured-dedicated huge capital into market, byd polysilicon, TSMC, foxconn and a number of IT companies join form new competition pattern, emerging silicon enterprise productivity is under construction, 2011 years of traditional doesn't silicon enterprises to form the competition, but market share race will aggravate.
Currently competitive pattern mainly embodied in silicon in vertical forging industry chain and development single link competition, usually refers to "yingli mode" and "crystal Macao mode" competition. What is the future development mode, go vertical industry chain or walk single link mode, depends on the enterprise itself and application market. The author thinks that the current two modes can make big development. But in the long run, if the world cancel photovoltaic subsidies, particularly China, achieve parity online, industry more competitive, vertical industry chain "yingli mode" with current single link investment "crystal Macao mode" comparison, reduce cost space more advantages, the author thinks that if realized in did not appear on the Internet, evaluation of the revolutionary technological breakthrough cases, then build vertical industry chain "yingli mode" will be in power generation side extensions, that is to say, these manufacturing enterprise May 1857 gandour, become solar power company, the ultimate profit through industrial power tariff realized.
Traditional silicon thin film technology of course with a new route for the equipment manufacturing industry are mainly embodied in the core technology of the competition. Equipment manufacturing industries of national economy is the strategic industry provide technical equipment, industrial correlativeness degree is high, and technical capital intensive and absorb employment ability, is industrial upgrading and the important guarantee and technological progress the centralized embodiment of national comprehensive strength. Pv equipment can be classified as semiconductor equipment field, its technology in physics, chemistry, optics, electronics, materials and automatic control dozens of professional fields, have high technical content. Pv equipment is not only the carrier of production technology, relates to the disadvantages of photovoltaic products quality, also be the main body part industry investment, affects the cost of pv products, pv height, so the equipment manufacturing industry is the overall industry foundation to support industries, in the status of industry chain is very important.
Pv equipment can be roughly divided into silicon devices and film equipment two kinds big, among them, because silicon solar battery occupy the market more than 80% of the shares, making silicon devices also become the industry grab an eye most current development. Silicon pv equipment including industrial chain front industrial silicon smelting, polysilicon production, silicon wafer processing, battery piece manufacture and later section production, application system of components and the corresponding auxiliary equipment production. Domestic currently more than 60 engaged in pv equipment research and development production enterprises, mainly with silicon wafer processing, battery piece manufacture, component production and auxiliary equipment manufacturer mostly, manufacturer is much distribution in north east, north and south China, of which about 15 backbone enterprises.
But, due to technical basis in the backward, and photovoltaic industry many link key equipment also rely on imported equipment. If polycrystalline material production links in the reduction furnace, the equipment product quality and productivity, single machine energy consumption per unit product and costs are there exists considerable gap with international level, can only import equipment primarily. In battery manufacturing link, domestic equipment in number, but already monopolises core process equipment such as polysilicon system flocking cleaning machine, plate-type PECVD (plasma chemical vapor deposition), automatic silk printing machine and quick sintering furnace basically rely on imports. In particular, as future large-scale industrialization of silicon cells appear, automatic silicon production ways become main form, this not only require equipment enterprise have automation capability, and developed the line with the whole line process demands of its research and development ability, in this respect, the domestic enterprise is almost blank, most businesses have only provide a few individual machines ability.
This year the battery and component will face huge challenges and risks
Photovoltaic battery and pv modules increasingly fierce market competition environment, wafers and polycrystalline silicon material supply bottlenecks problem, according to the latest statistics predict China photovoltaic battery production line in 2011 will reach 7.4 production lines (25 megawatts/bar), CCEI expects China 2011 all batteries capacity will reach 30 auspicious tile, China component production capacity will reach 32.97 an auspicious tile, if 2012 battery capacity to be released in full, China polycrystalline silicon materials demand will reach 25-28 million tons, according to predict 2012 polysilicon production capacity will reach China 12-15 tons, import keep in 5-6 tons, currently silicon material or not enough, because the production investment polysilicon material, cycle is long wait for a reason, inside short time also hard to meet the current battery production enterprise of components and the needs of the enterprises. Therefore, the author thinks that the present China's polycrystalline silicon wafer materials and hard to satisfy the market supply market, will appear the contradiction between supply and demand, the investment battery and components, on the one hand, the enterprise sides trapped because of photovoltaic energy market uncertainty, lead to gain market order difficult; On the other hand, because upstream capacity expansion, cannot satisfy the downstream supply in the market, thus less than silicon and silicon material purchase, many enterprises especially smaller cells andmodules enterprise anti-risk ability greatly reduced, and even faced no rice cooking it, didn't start the discontinued situation.
New technology innovation and development of existing technology and industry is the challenge to both pv industry technology innovation or film technology development, are faced with new challenges, in photovoltaic polycrystalline silicon material production enterprises, the next 10 years will emerge 5-10 DWT super-large polysilicon enterprise, both in terms of size or get further development in technology admiral, cost advantage will further obvious, the research in photovoltaic cells, each big battery company also launched efficient battery, such as crystal Mr Seth show efficient battery, changzhou TRW PC14 efficient battery, TSM - the yingli panda efficient battery and use of their own advantages to participate in international solar technology research, and to introduce, absorption and innovation to improve the efficiency, reduce the cost; Facing the photovoltaic industry development, the film battery technology has also made rapid development, efficient double festival of amorphous/microcrystalline battery, CIGS, CIS, CdTe etc r&d and industrialization in further intensify on photovoltaic industry development, puts forward the new challenges.
Chinese solar photovoltaic manufacturing competition pattern has been formed
Solar pv industry competition and traditional fossil energy competition. Because of fossil energy cause global warming, the world is looking for a new alternative energy solutions, European offers 2020, renewable energy alternative reached to 20%, reached 80% by 2050 -- 100% plan, China also proposed that in 2020 the fossil energy ratio in the future to 15%, then plays a dominant energy alternative energy what energy? From the current technology development and application prospect, the author thinks that the most opportunity to become the world's solar energy main alternative energy sources. 1, the world light is rich in resources, solar inexhaustible, and inexhaustible; 2, the solar energy technology and talent to emerge in endlessly, the world IT technology talent transferred to solar technology, solar pv industry and IT industries are very similar, solar energy level polycrystalline and electronic level, YiMaiXiangChuan polysilicon is thin film technology extends from LCD technology, and therefore, solar photovoltaic power generation technology upgrading very fast and photovoltaic cells generating efficiency of more and more is also high, cost more and more low, and smart grid and storage technology will further enhance the solar energy application, development space is very large, and do not suffer resource constraints, and resource price impact, if has the stable price support, can keep for a long time, fixed income, therefore, solar power industry as a financial product development will be affected by insurance, fund's favor; 3 and the world climate change requirements, because solar energy is one-time investment, currently have data shows too Yang can power station commercial life cycle for 25 years, before 3-5 years of manufacturing costs for solar power, the carbon dioxide produced far below the same scale, therefore, will fossil power for global climate change and carbon dioxide emissions reduction of contribution; Four, the solar energy application prospect is very extensive, whether roof power stations, large-scale solar power station in human life, or will be very popular, application involves dynamic system are likely to combine with solar energy.